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Prediction for CME (2025-09-30T01:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-09-30T01:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41527/-1
CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the East in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-09-30T01:48Z. This event is too faint to be seen in SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2 or GOES CCOR-1. The source of this event may be related to an M1.2 flare from Active Region 14232 (N05E35) peaking at 2025-09-30T00:56Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-03T15:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41532/1
Model Inputs:
2025-09-30T01:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-35.0, Lat.=9.0, Speed=367.0, HalfAngle=17.0, Time21.5=2025-09-30T11:05Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-10-03T15:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-02T02:00Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-01T14:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-03T14:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250930_110500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 69.52 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-09-30T17:29Z

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